The NFL Combine is an annual week-long showcase where college football players perform physical and mental tests in front of NFL coaches, general managers and scouts. It helps teams evaluate draft prospects through standardized tests along with medical examinations and interviews. The event often serves as a key tool for teams to compare players objectively and make more informed decisions ahead of the NFL Draft.
For prospects, it is a tremendous opportunity to boost their draft stock by posting impressive numbers in the various tests. However, some prospects choose to sit out certain drills due to a variety of different reasons which I won’t dive into today. But the reason we are here today, is to determine, which NFL combine drills matter most for each NFL position, when selecting for the Draft.
Today, I looked at how many prospects in the NFL Combine skipped certain drills by position groups, from 2009-2019. If elite prospects consistently skip certain drills and prioritize others, it reveals which measurements could be valued as legitimate predictors of NFL success versus which have become outdated, irrelevant, or inconclusive. This analysis was conducted using R, the GitHub code will be provided at the end.
Skilled positions most skip out on agility 3 cone, bench press, and shuttle. Quite a high number of opt-out rates.
Becoming a trend here, linebackers often opt-out the 3 cone, shuttle and bench press. Similar numbers to both offensive/defensive lineman.
Opt-out rate for defensive lineman is similar to our last graph. Bench press, 3 cone, and shuttle are mostly skipped.
Opt-out rate for defensive lineman is similar to our last graph. Bench press, 3 cone, and shuttle are mostly skipped.
Defensive backs opt-out the 3 cone and shuttle, much more than offensive & defensive lineman + linebackers.
Maximize value in the top three rounds of the NFL Draft by prioritizing prospects whose Combine results meet or surpass these crucial benchmarks
Takeaways
Non-Essential Drills:
Agility 3 cone and shuttle are skipped the most in every position group (except for defensive lineman who skip bench press).
Essential Drills:
The 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump are the most consistently completed and reliable measures for comparing Combine talent. GMs should prioritize these three universally accepted drills for scouting.
“Sweet Spot”
Prioritize prospects whose Combine results meet or exceed the established average benchmarks for their respective position groups
Appendix
GitHub Repository:
Sample code:
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